Mortgage Rates Are 7.28% — But California Homes Have Appreciated Through Every Rate Cycle Since the 1980s

Yes, mortgage rates jumped to 7.28% — the biggest weekly increase in four years. But before that number scares you out of buying, let's put it in perspective. I'm Mariness Chata, a Broker Associate and REALTOR® with 26+ years of residential experience in the Santa Clarita Valley, and I've guided buyers through every rate environment since 2000.

7.28% is below average

The 30-year fixed rate has averaged 7.68% since 1971. In October 1981, buyers paid 18.63% — and many of them still built life-changing wealth, because they bought the home, not the rate. In January 2021, the rate touched a record low of 2.65%. Rates swing. They always have. The home is what's permanent.

California appreciation is the constant

Since 1984, U.S. home prices have grown 441% while general inflation grew just 210% — and California cities show the largest gaps of all. The FHFA's California home price index is up more than sixfold since 1980. Today's statewide median: $901,420. Everyone who bought a California home in the 1980s, 1990s, or 2000s and held on is sitting on appreciation no interest rate could ever deliver.

You can refinance the rate. You can't rewind the price.

Here's what I tell my buyers: if the monthly payment fits your budget today, buy the home. When rates fall — as they always eventually do — you refinance and your payment drops. But you can never go back and buy at today's price. Waiting for the perfect rate while prices climb is the most expensive decision of all.

Owning is about more than the rate

Every payment builds equity. Your payment stays stable while rents keep rising. There are tax benefits renters never get. And in the Santa Clarita Valley, you're buying into top-rated schools, master-planned communities, and a market with decades of steady demand — in Santa Clarita, Stevenson Ranch, Valencia, Saugus, Newhall, Canyon Country, Agua Dulce, Castaic, and Acton.

Frequently asked questions

Q: Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying?

A: Waiting usually costs more than it saves. While you wait for the perfect rate, home prices keep climbing — and every year of waiting is a year of rent paid and equity not built. If the payment fits your budget today, buying now and refinancing later almost always wins.

Q: Can I really refinance later if rates fall?

A: Yes — that's exactly the strategy. Millions of homeowners refinanced when rates hit record lows in 2020–2021, dropping their payments by hundreds of dollars a month. You marry the house and date the rate.

Q: Is 7.28% actually high by historical standards?

A: No. The 30-year fixed has averaged 7.68% since 1971, and buyers in 1981 paid 18.63%. Today's rate feels high only compared to the extraordinary lows of 2020–2021 — not compared to history.

Q: Why does California appreciation matter more than the rate?

A: Because appreciation is permanent and the rate is temporary. California home values are up more than sixfold since 1980. The buyers who focused on the rate in 1981, 1990, or 2000 and bought anyway are the ones sitting on life-changing equity today.

If you'd like me to run your real numbers — what you can afford today and what a refinance could look like later — call Mariness Chata at (661) 317-3332. I work with buyers across the Santa Clarita Valley in English, Portuguese, and Spanish.